Report on global risks for tourism in 2017

18 July 2016
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New research highlights six key risks heading into 2017 that could impact both travel industry prices and the global economy as a whole. They are emerging market performance, financial market turbulence, geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding Brexit, potentially fluctuating U.S. interest rates and oil prices. These findings come from the 2017 Global Travel Price Outlook, research from the GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), and leading travel management company Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT). Airline prices are projected to increase only slightly (2.5 percent) in 2017, while fares may actually fall below 2015 levels in some markets due to continued low oil prices. Ancillary fees will have an increasing impact: they grew to 7.8 percent of global airline revenue in 2015, up from 6.7 percent in 2014 and that trend is set to continue. It is anticipated that Eastern Europe will see a 4 percent increase in prices due in part to limited competition prices in Western Europe prices are expected to increase by 0.5 percent and in Middle East and Africa by 2 percent. Also, low oil and gas prices have decreased corporate travel for [the sector, primarily in the Middle East, Africa and Russia. It is anticipated that Eastern Europe prices will fall 2.4 percent, Western Europe prices will increase 1.8 percent, and Middle East and Africa rates will fall slightly, by 0.5 percent. An intensely competitive climate will dictate continued flat pricing for the global ground transportation sector. Modest increases in cost per attendee, per day, for meetings and events are expected for Asia Pacific and North America. Europe is expected to remain flat and Latin America will see a decrease of 10 percent. Group sizes will increase marginally in the 3-6 percent range for Asia Pacific, Europe and North America, while remaining flat in Latin America.

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