‘Good and bad’ pension cut scenario in Greek draft budget tabled with EU Commission

16 October 2018
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The Greek government, as expected, included both “scenarios” regarding pension cuts in a draft budget for 2019 sent to the EU Commission this week for its review and posted by the latter on Monday evening.

Only marginal differences are found from the draft submitted on Oct. 1 in Greece’s Parliament, with the primary budget surplus forecast to reach 3.6 percent of GDP for the coming year if the pre-legislated social security reduction is not implemented after all – and 4.2 percent if implemented. An attached bundle of “discretionary measures” – welfare spending and tax breaks – will also be curtailed if the pension measure is avoided.

A final decision on which measures the poll-trailing Tsipras government will or will not implemented during an election year awaits deliberations with the European Commission.

Conversely, a “no change policy” generates a forecast for a 4.2 percent primary balance surplus and a fiscal space of 1.1 billion euros.

With Monday’s submission of the draft budget, the Commission’s service begin their detailed review on Tuesday.

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